U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Washington agrees with Britain's assessment of Iran's role in an alleged attack plan against RAF Fairford. According to a report from the London-based opposition outlet Iran International, Rubio's statement shows that the U.S.-British assessment on the incident at the base where U.S. bombers are used in operations against Iran are now aligned.
Rubio's clear stance represents an advance from his more cautious position in late September. According to reports by Al Jazeera and Irish Examiner, Rubio told Fox News on September 28-29 that the incident "bore the fingerprints of a foreign actor," referenced Iran's threats to U.S. interests, but stopped short of directly linking the event to Iran. UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham subsequently said, according to AP reporting, that there were "strong indications" of Iran's involvement in the suspected incident at RAF Fairford but that the investigation was proceeding in "complex and serious" fashion. Five people detained near the base were released on bail; materials found were reported not to be explosive. Iran denied the allegations; its embassy in Tehran called the accusations "baseless and malicious." Foreign Minister Araghchi previously replied to Burnham's allegations by saying, "You're barking up the wrong tree."
After the September 27 incident, British counterterrorism police announced that suspects detained over three vehicles were initially investigated under explosives laws and later under terrorism laws for "suspicion of preparation of a terrorist act"; the investigation's focus was whether suspects knowingly or unknowingly acted on behalf of a foreign state. Trump, reacting to the release of the suspects, said he was "surprised." Rubio said on October 5 that there was "no direct connection" between the sudden withdrawal of U.S. bombers from the base and the suspected plan, saying the "Department of Defense constantly reallocates resources as needed."
Context
Fairford is America's sole forward base for heavy bombers in Europe and played a critical role in the seven-month U.S.-Iran war; the base was used under an agreement in which Britain, under former Prime Minister Keir Starmer, had authorized U.S. strike flights against Iran. Twenty-nine countries, under Britain's leadership, jointly declared support on October 12 for London's security assessment and Britain imposed sanctions on two Iranians; however, the declaration included no new evidence of Iran's responsibility (29-nation Fairford statement: Britain imposes sanctions on 2 more Iranians). While Rubio's statement today clarifies Washington's support for that assessment, the investigation continues and no public evidence has been released proving a direct Iran link; the gap between allegation and rebuttal remains unverified. The IRGC described the Fairford base as a "legitimate target" in July; this rhetoric has been cited as an indirect factor reinforcing London's suspicions.
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