Iran not ready for 25-30 million elderly by 2046: fertility rate drops to 1.34

Hamid Berekati, deputy head of Iran's National Population Center, warned Monday of the country's falling fertility rate, saying Iran will face 25-30 million seniors by 2046 (Farsi calendar 1425) and lacks adequate care, health, and social services capacity. According to Kayhan, citing Tasnim, Berekati spoke at the National Children's Week conference.

By Berekati's figures, the national fertility rate peaked near 2.1 children per woman around 2016-17 (Farsi 1395), then declined; it fell to 1.44 by 2024-25 (Farsi 1403) and to 1.34 by 2025-26 (Farsi 1404). The official cautioned that experience from other countries shows it is difficult for fertility to climb back to replacement levels once it drops very low, making population policy urgent before decline deepens and requiring a long-term view.

Berekati noted that in 1986 (Farsi 1365) Iran's fertility rate was markedly higher than global and Asian averages, driving population-control policies; today the demographic picture has reversed, requiring reassessment of approaches and serious commitment to family and childbearing support. He suggested that incentives under the Family Support and Population Rejuvenation Law could influence family decisions but that continuity and effectiveness of these supports are critical.

According to the official, roughly one million people await maternity and child-bearing loans; delays in processing and economic hardship discourage family formation. Berekati also flagged the uncertainty environment he called "neither war nor peace" as dampening fertility decisions, noting that births in March 2026 (Farsi Esfand 1404) fell roughly 10 percent below the annual average, though some recovery appeared in following months.

Berekati cited UN projections showing three scenarios for Iran based on fertility rates of 2.4, 1.9, and 1.4, noting that the current rate has fallen to roughly 1.3—and warned that under a low-fertility scenario, Iran's population could shrink to 30 million within about 70 years, with wide-ranging consequences for workforce composition, industry, and economic development. The official added that population policy extends beyond raising the fertility rate; investment in healthy child development and attention to the first 1,000 days of life are equally important.

Berekati also clarified that birth numbers must not be confused with fertility rates, since the number of women of childbearing age and the age structure of the population directly affect annual births; long-term trends cannot be judged from a single year's data.

Context

Iran pursued birth-rate increases in the 1980s, shifted toward family planning in the 1990s and early 2000s, then returned to birth-promotion policies after 2012. Berekati's remarks today show these policy shifts have not yet achieved desired results and that state authorities acknowledge the problem. His references to economic pressure and high inflation making marriage and childbearing difficult align with widespread economic hardship; this condition makes population policy not only a demographic but an economic matter, with long-term consequences for pensions and healthcare systems.

How the Persian press covered it